Qualcomm's grip weakens as big players look elsewhere for 5G modems

Android Authority’s latest Pixel leak reveals that, given its choice, Google isn’t opting for Samsung or Qualcomm to build the modem in its upcoming Pixel 10 smartphone. No, it’s chosen MediaTek as its next radio partner, specifically the as-yet-unannounced T900 modem. In related news, Apple is reportedly gearing up to drop Snapdragon in its upcoming iPhone SE 4 and possibly some iPads in 2025, with plans to replace Qualcomm entirely as soon as 2027. Two major household electronics brands are looking at options outside of the US baseband giant in the next couple of years.

Both companies may have slightly different motives, but the loss of Apple will be acutely painful for the US’s biggest 5G phone silicon supplier. It’s worth pointing out that Apple’s iPhone commands over half the US market share at recent counts. Combined with powering Samsung Galaxy flagships in the US, Qualcomm’s modems are currently found in a considerable number of flagship phones in its home country — not to mention the rest of the world, where iPhones and Chinese Android flagships sell in abundance.

Although Qualcomm has a diverse product portfolio these days, it cut its teeth in mobile based on the strength of its baseband portfolio. The company has remained a key player in the 5G transition, with close ties to major phone brands and carriers, including Verizon. Losing two of the US’s more recognizable phone brands will undoubtedly sting, leaving it much more reliant on application processor sales in the Android market (and its extensive portfolio of networking patents, of course). Exactly how this plays out is yet to be seen, however, as Apple’s modem developments have been teased and delayed for years now.

Still, Apple has a variety of reasons for wanting to bring modem development in house. The high costs of a key component for its most prized products is an obvious one, although pursuing custom 5G modems isn’t necessarily a cheap option. Apple paid around $1 billion for Intel’s defunct modem business in 2019 and has yet to see a return after years of reported development issues and tiptoeing around Qualcomm’s extensive patent portfolio. Apple’s first 5G modem isn’t expected to be all that spectacular either and will likely be a downgrade on Qualcomm’s current best. It won’t support mmWave technology, for instance, making it a dud for major US networks like Verizon. Apple is still a few years away, at least, from realizing full modem independence.

Still, Apple has paid Qualcomm several billions in royalties over the past decade and has a deal in place until 2027, so it could be looking for more favorable financial terms from then on out. Apple also reportedly expects that it can best Qualcomm’s technology in the long run, with superior SAR limits, better support satellite capabilities, and efficiency improvements, but it would say that. Still, Apple is looking to make significant changes to its iPhone modem setup that it can’t simply buy off the shelf from elsewhere.

Further down the line, there are markets beyond smartphones. Bringing 4G/5G capabilities to the MacBook series would close that particular gap with connected Windows PCs. The Vision Pro may be a precursor to more portable augmented reality glasses that would benefit from data connectivity. Automotive, wearables, you name it, you can stick a modem in it these days, and Apple would undoubtedly rather keep those profits than hand them to a key rival.

Bringing development in-house will, in theory, allow Apple to scale its design to meet various product segments more cost-effectively. Integrating its modem into its processor silicon will be the key milestone to make 5G widespread across its products, but once the modem is sat alongside Apple’s custom CPU, GPU, and NPU smarts, it’ll have a full-house (it’s working on Bluetooth and Wi-Fi for 2025 too). Furthermore, a modem is just the right place to build in technologies to assist with tighter integration between devices and level up Apple’s Continuity. Qualcomm has a similar idea with Snapdragon Seamless, but we’re yet to see it make an appearance — a perpetual problem with some of Qualcomm’s more interesting ideas.

As for Google, it’s looking for a high-end partner after mixed success with Samsung’s Exynos modems paired with its Tensor chipsets. Qualcomm has long been considered the premium option and would have been many people’s go-to Exynos alternative, but if reports about the cost of its mobile processors are anything to go by, its high-end options are becoming increasingly expensive. Area, power, and other considerations will undoubtedly factor into decisions at team Tensor, as well as the price to obtain cutting-edge features like satellite connectivity.

Unfortunately, we don’t know anything about MediaTek’s T900 to really compare it against Qualcomm’s current best. However, MediaTek highlights that its current T800 model is highly power efficient, with integrated power and transceiver components to ensure a small footprint. It supports both sub-6Ghz and mmWave, making it suitable for global and US markets. While performance will obviously be key, the T800 is a premium-tier option, and the T900 will be better still.

Despite this, MediaTek is considered the more affordable player in the SoC and modem markets, and leaked documents recently highlighted that the cost of production is particularly important for Google’s goals with next-gen Tensor products. Of course, we don’t know the ins and outs of any Google/MediaTek deal, but it’s easy enough to piece the above together for Google’s benefit. For MediaTek, scoring a major US brand would undoubtedly be a big win for Taiwan’s finest — too often overlooked outside of Chinese brands.

Apple’s custom modem ambitions and Google’s pivot to MediaTek look set to mark a sharp reduction in leading phone brands’ reliance on Qualcomm hardware, but the road ahead is uncertain and fraught with challenges for both companies.

Apple’s potential for cost savings and tighter hardware-software integration may come at the price of early performance sacrifices. For Google, MediaTek’s value proposition could deliver affordability and efficiency, but it will need to prove itself in real-world performance against Qualcomm’s well-established flagship products.

These upcoming shifts could reshape the North American and even global mobile industry. However, Qualcomm still has plenty of lucrative 4G and 5G patent license agreements that’ll keep it a significant baseband player even if it’s not selling as many modems directly. It has already diversified its offerings well beyond modems as well, but future growth may now hinge on emerging technologies like automotive and Android XR rather than hitching a ride with some of the household smartphone brands.